Monday, March 3, 2008

BracketTown Breakdown

The BracketTown Breakdown

The Hamptons - ‘High-End Teams’, already locked (18): Tennessee (SEC), Memphis (Conference USA), North Carolina (ACC), Texas (Big 12), UCLA (Pac-10), Duke (At-large), Kansas (At-large), Xavier (Atlantic 10), Georgetown (Big East), Stanford (At-large), Wisconsin (Big 10), Vanderbilt (At-large), Connecticut (At-large), Indiana (At-large), Louisville (At-large), Butler (Horizon), Drake (Missouri Valley) and Michigan State.

One Bid Wonders (15, current conference leader listed): Oral Roberts (Summit), Cornell (Ivy), Siena (Metro-Atlantic), Maryland-Baltimore County (Am. East), Stephen F. Austin (Southland)Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Boise State (WAC), American (Patriot), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Cal State-Northridge (Big West), Portland State (Big Sky), Winthrop (Big South), Robert Morris (Northeast), Morgan State (Mid-Eastern), Alabama State (SWAC).

Town Square Teams – Teams gathered in the middle of the bracket (45 teams for 32 spots, teams in parenthesis are current conference leaders): Notre Dame, Marquette, Purdue, Washington State, Kent State (Mid-American), St. Mary's, Gonzaga (West Coast), BYU (Mountain West), Arizona, Clemson, South Alabama (Sun Belt), Miami (FL), Pittsburgh, Oklahoma, UNLV, Baylor, West Virginia, Arkansas, Umass, Kansas State, Southern California, Mississippi State, Saint Joseph's, Texas A&M, Syracuse, Rhode Island, Maryland, Arizona State, Va. Commonwealth (Colonial), Davidson (Southern), Florida, UAB, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, New Mexico, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Houston, Kentucky, Villanova, Oregon, Western Kentucky, Creighton, California, Mississippi.

March 3rd Bracket

2008 NCAA Tournament
National Semifinals: April 5
National Finals: April 7
Site: The Alamodome

Final Four Pairings: East v. West, Midwest v. South

Play-in Game
March 25th at UD Arena, Dayton, OH
Austin Peay (Ohio Valley) /Alabama St. (SWAC)

Charlotte
Regional Semifinal: March 27
Regional Final: March 29
Site: Charlotte Arena

1 North Carolina (ACC) v. 16 Play-in Game
8 Oklahoma v. 9 Arizona State
Pod site: Raleigh

5 Notre Dame v. 12 Davidson (Southern)
4 Vanderbilt v. 13 Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
Pod site: Tampa

3 Xavier (Atlantic 10) v. 14 Siena (Metro-Atlantic)
6 Clemson v. 11 South Alabama (Sun Belt)
Pod site: Washington, DC

7 Pittsburgh v. 10 Maryland
2 Wisconsin (Big 10) v. 15 American (Patriot)
Pod site: Omaha

Phoenix
Regional Semifinal: March 27
Regional Final: March 29
Site: US Airways Arena

1 UCLA (Pacific-10) v. 16 Morgan State (MEAC)
8 BYU (Mountain West) v. 9 Baylor
Pod site: Anaheim

5 Marquette v. 12 Florida
4 Indiana v. 13 Va. Commonwealth (Colonial)
Pod site: Denver

3 Louisville 14 Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
11 Massachusetts v. 6 Washington State
Pod site: Birmingham

7 St. Mary’s v. 10 Texas A&M
2 Duke v. 15 UNC-Asheville (Big South)
Pod site: Raleigh

Detroit
Regional Semifinal: March 28
Regional Final: March 30
Site: Ford Field

1 Tennessee (SEC) v. 16 Robert Morris (Northeast)
8 Kansas State v. 9 Miami (FL)
Pod site: Birmingham

5 Butler (Horizon) v. 12 New Mexico
13 Oral Roberts (Summit) v. 4 Michigan State
Pod site: Denver

3 Georgetown (Big East) v. 14 Cornell (Ivy League)
11 Illinois State v. 6 Gonzaga (West Coast)
Pod site: Tampa

7 Southern California v. 10 Arkansas
15 CS-Northridge (Big West) v. 2 Kansas
Pod site: Omaha

Houston
Regional Semifinal: March 28
Regional Final: March 30
Site: Reliant Stadium

1 Memphis (Conf. USA) v. 16 Portland State (Big Sky)
8 Mississippi State v. 9 UNLV
Pod site: Little Rock

5 Purdue v. 12 Kent State (Mid-American)
4 Connecticut v. 13 Virginia Tech
Pod site: Washington, DC

3 Stanford v. 14 Boise State (WAC)
6 Drake (Missouri Valley) v. 11 UAB
Pod site: Anaheim

7 Arizona v. 10 West Virginia
15 MD.-Baltimore Cty (Am. East) v. 2 Texas (Big 12)
Pod site: Little Rock

Last four in: UAB, New Mexico, Florida, Va. Tech
First four out: Ohio State, St. Joseph’s, Kentucky, Rhode Island
Next four out: Western Kentucky, Syracuse, Villanova, Oregon
Still on the board: Houston, Wake Forest, Creighton, So. Illinois, Mississippi, California

Pod Sites
East – Raleigh (21, 23), Washington DC (20, 22)
Midwest – Omaha (20, 22), Little Rock (21, 23)
South – Tampa (21, 23), Birmingham (21, 23)
West – Anaheim (20, 22), Denver (20, 22)

Bids by Conference: Big East (7), ACC, Big 12, Pac-10 (6), SEC (5), Big 10 (4), Mountain West (3), Missouri Valley, Atlantic 10, Conference USA, West Coast (2)

Saturday, March 1, 2008

BracketTown Breakdown No. 2

The March 1st addition of the Breakdown features some minor changes. Most notably, I've moved the Lumberjacks of Stephen F. Austin to the "at-large" pool. I think if they win their last three games and advance to the final of the Southland Tournament (which is on Selection Sunday) they might have a hope of an at-large if they lose. The win over Oklahoma helps, they'd be 27-4 and their AD is on the Selection Committee (that's not supposed to matter, right?).

We've also added Western Kentucky to the at-large pool with hopes of a WKU and USA final in the Sun Belt.

The Dish
As we approach Championship Week and we continue to look at the bracket it's appropriate to put teams in three categories: The "Hamptons" (the high end teams, locked into the touranment), the "Town Square" teams (the middle of the bracket where everybody gathers) and separately the "One Bid Wonders" (leagues that have ZERO teams with at-large profiles). Currently, we have 78 teams on the board and we'll drop and add as teams get hot or cold. We'll update the automatic qualifiers with an underline when bids are secured.

The Breakdown

The Hamptons (17): Tennessee (SEC), Memphis (Conference USA), North Carolina (ACC), Texas (Big 12), UCLA (Pac-10), Duke (At-large), Kansas (At-large), Xavier (Atlantic 10), Georgetown (Big East), Stanford (At-large), Wisconsin (Big 10), Vanderbilt (At-large), Connecticut (At-large), Indiana (At-large), Louisville (At-large), Butler (Horizon) and Drake (Missouri Valley).

One Bid Wonders (14, current conference leader listed): Oral Roberts (Summit), Cornell (Ivy), Siena (Metro-Atlantic), Maryland-Baltimore County (Am. East), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Boise State (WAC), American (Patriot), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Cal State-Northridge (Big West), Portland State (Big Sky), Winthrop (Big South), Robert Morris (Northeast), Morgan State (Mid-Eastern), Alabama State (SWAC).

Town Square Teams (47 teams for 34 spots, teams in parenthesis are current conference leaders): Michigan State, Notre Dame, Marquette, Purdue, Washington State, Kent State (Mid-American), St. Mary's (West Coast), Gonzaga, BYU (Mountain West), Arizona, Clemson, South Alabama (Sun Belt), Miami (FL), Pittsburgh, Oklahoma, UNLV, Baylor, West Virginia, Arkansas, Umass, Kansas State, Southern California, Mississippi State, Saint Joseph's, Texas A&M, Syracuse, Rhode Island, Maryland, Arizona State, Va. Commonwealth (Colonial), Davidson (Southern), Florida, UAB, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, New Mexico, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Houston, Kentucky, Villanova, Oregon, Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Western Kentucky, Creighton, California, Mississippi.

Left for dead: George Mason (at-large hopes)

Bids on the Line

The Cornell Big Red (18-5, 11-0, 69 RPI) have the first chance to clinch a bid today as they play for the Ivy League title against Harvard (8-19, 3-8 Ivy League). Cornell would be the first team since 1988 (when they won the title) to win the league other than the Power P's -- Penn and Princeton.

Currently, the Big Red project as a 14 seed.

The first conference tournaments begin on Tuesday (Big South, Horizon, Ohio Valley). The first touranment bids via league tournaments will be handed out next Saturday: Atlantic Sun, Big South, Ohio Valley.

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Brackettown Breakdown

As we approach Championship Week and we continue to look at the bracket it appropriate to put teams in three categories: The "Hamptons" (the high end teams, locked into the touranment), the "Town Square" teams (the middle of the bracket where everybody gathers) and separately the "One Bid Wonders" (leagues that have ZERO teams with at-large profiles). Currently, we have 78 teams on the board and we'll drop and add as teams get hot or cold.

The Breakdown

The Hamptons (16): Tennessee, Memphis, North Carolina, Texas, UCLA, Duke, Kansas, Xavier, Georgetown, Stanford, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Connecticut, Indiana, Louisville and Butler.

One Bid Wonders (15, current conference leader listed): Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Oral Roberts (Summit), Cornell (Ivy), Siena (Metro-Atlantic), Maryland-Baltimore County (Am. East), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Boise State (WAC), American (Patriot), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Cal State-Northridge (Big West), Portland State (Big Sky), Winthrop (Big South), Robert Morris (Northeast), Morgan State (Mid-Eastern), Alabama State (SWAC).

Town Square Teams (47 teams for 34 spots, teams in parenthesis are current conference leaders): Michigan State, Notre Dame, Marquette, Purdue, Washington State, Drake (Missouri Valley), Kent State (Mid-American), St. Mary's (West Coast), Gonzaga, BYU (Mountain West), Arizona, Clemson, South Alabama (Sun Belt), Miami (FL), Pittsburgh, Oklahoma, UNLV, Baylor, West Virginia, Arkansas, Umass, Kansas State, Southern California, Mississippi State, Saint Joseph's, Texas A&M, Syracuse, Rhode Island, Maryland, Arizona State, Va. Commonwealth (Colonial), Davidson (Southern), Florida, UAB, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, New Mexico, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Houston, Kentucky, Villanova, Oregon, Creighton, California, Mississippi, George Mason.

Monday, February 25, 2008

Additions to the Watch Board

I've added New Mexico and Southern Illinois to the Watch Board. The Lobos and new coach Steve Alford will make their case this week when they host BYU and UNLV. With no current top-50 wins (but a 22-6 mark) a decision will likely be made on the Lobos by Sunday.

The Salukis are rounding into form and I wouldn't want to be playing them in St. Louis. The question remains, though, if they win their last two and two more in the Valley tournament would 20-13 get them in if they lost in the finals. I don't know?

Sunday, February 24, 2008

Commentary on the Bracket

In the few years I've been doing this, I've always had to eliminate teams that I thought should be in the tournament. This year it's the opposite: I'm putting in the least bad teams.

The last four in today -- Villanova, Ohio State, Rhode Island and Syracuse -- have done little to make themselves a lock for anything. But, look at the next four -- Florida, Illinois State, UAB and Wake Forest. You can make a small case for Illinois State (#2 team in the #8 RPI league -- the same case for an AWFUL Air Force team a few years ago) and UAB (no real bad losses and they beat Kentucky). Ugh.

It will be interesting to see who the committee likes this season and their reasons for having teams in and out.

BracketBuster Winners
1. The Missouri Valley was a big winner in the annual Busters with their top five teams all getting big wins: Drake @ Butler, Illinois State v. Wright State, SIU v. Nevada, Creighton @ Oral Roberts and Bradley v. UWM. The Valley tournament should be top notch again this year.

2. Kent State. The Golden Flash made some noise for the first time since Stan Heath led them to within a game of the Final Four in the 2002 NCAA Tournament when the won at St. Mary's (the first team to do so this year). Kent State would be an "at-large IN" in today's bracket if needed. It also didn't hurt that conference mate Ohio game from way back to beat George Mason.

BubbleBusters?
After enduring four games that came down to the last possession in Big 12 losses, the Huskers are now ruining the Big 12 bubble having topped Kansas State and Texas A&M in back-to-back games. Both the Wildcats and the Aggies appear safe, but NU's next opponent -- Oklahoma -- comes to town on Wednesday for another big bubble game. A win in that game for Nebraska would give both teams 6-7 league records. But, remember, the Sooners are playing for their tournament lives.

NOTE: The Huskers beat consecutive ranked opponents for the first time since 1999 with the wins last week.

Teams we are watching
1. Kentucky -- Can Billy Gillespie's team come back from the dead? If the Wildcats are 18-11 going to the SEC Tournament and advance to the SEC semifinals can you really leave them out?

2. Ohio State -- They couldn't beat Wisconsin at home today and now the travel to Bloomington. If they lose to the Hoosiers, I'd think they need to win out: @ Minnesota, v. Michigan State and v. Purdue.

3. Syracuse -- The Orange are really good at home where they have a chance to beat Marquette and Pittsburgh before the Big East tournament. It's the game @ Seton Hall I'm more interested in.

4. The middle of the Atlantic 10 -- Will anyone give Xavier a fight in the league tournament? St. Joseph's, UMass and Rhode Island should have the best chance. If those teams advance to the final four of the touranment at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City they might all make the Big Dance.

5. Maryland @ Wake Forest -- The winner is likely in next week's bracket and the loser is likely out. What has happened to the Terps -- the loss at home to Va. Tech is unexcusable.